Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

611
FXUS61 KLWX 250114
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
914 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move to the offshore waters of the mid-
Atlantic Coast tonight. A strengthening low pressure system
will approach from the west on Friday into Friday night. The
associated warm front will lift through the region Friday,
followed by a cold front on Saturday. Canadian high pressure
settles in on Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Current satellite imagery shows some very thin high clouds still
present across much of the area. Clouds will gradually continue
to thicken overnight, but no precipitation is expected. Winds
will be light out of the south, with overnight low temperatures
generally in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure over the Great Lakes will swing across the Great
Lakes region Friday. A developing warm front will meander into
and across our region Friday before lifting northward Friday
night into early Saturday. This warm front could spawn rain
showers and a few thunderstorms Friday, mainly west of the US 15
corridor. Additional showers and thunderstorms could spread
east into the metro areas Friday afternoon into Friday night as
the warm front lifts across and out of the region. High
temperatures Friday will be middle to upper 70s with near 80
reading from the metros to the Chesapeake Bay and lower 70s west
of the Shenandoah Valley. While cloud cover, showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder still linger Friday night, low
temperatures Friday night will be milder with lows in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

With a warm front leading the way of warm and more humid air,
additional showers and thunderstorms could develop Saturday
morning through midday behind this warm front and ahead of a
strong cold front that is expected to extend southwest from the
Great Lakes low pressure system. Given the amount of moisture
and humidity and warmth ahead of the cold front and the actual
lift from the surface front and mid-level energy, some of the
thunderstorms around midday Saturday into Saturday afternoon
could be strong with heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Models seem
to indicate that the cold front clears our region between mid-
afternoon Saturday and early Saturday evening. Temperatures
along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains could punch into the
80 to lower 80s realm, while the further west in direction and
up in elevation could quickly be in the 70s, if not 60s, with
frontal passage on Saturday. Saturday night`s lows could be 15
to 20 degrees cooler than Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure of Canadian origin will build in Sunday as upper level
troughing moves to the east. Breezy and cooler conditions will
prevail, although temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s are only
a few degrees below normal. Favorable radiational cooling may
develop Sunday night as the high builds overhead. However,
frost/freeze concerns appear to be minimal where the growing season
has started as dew points are forecast in the mid to upper 30s. A
warming trend will start Monday as the high slides to the southeast.

Tuesday will feel a bit more like summer as a warm front lifts north
and upper ridging builds overhead. Temperatures likely rise well
into the 80s with dew points nearing 60. It appears any convective
chances will be limited to northwestern parts of the CWA as remnant
activity from the Ohio Valley moves in late in the day or overnight.

A cold front will approach Wednesday, bringing a higher (but not
definite) chance of showers and thunderstorms to the entire forecast
area. While wind fields will have a modest increase aloft, the
threat for stronger storms is uncertain due to questions about
frontal timing and available forcing and instability. Fewer areas
may reach 80 as clouds and shower chances increase, but it will
still be a warm day. The front will likely stall near or south of
the area Thursday, resulting in a persisting chance of showers along
with slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will result in continued VFR conditions for most
through tonight. Some guidance hints that very low clouds or
fog may try to form late tonight to the south and east of I-95.
Confidence is low with respect to whether these clouds could
reach DCA, BWI, and MTN. For now, have just hinted at the
possibility with a FEW005 group. Winds will remain relatively
light out of the south tonight.

A warm front will approach the region ahead of a strengthening
surface low to the west later tonight into Friday. Sub-VFR
ceilings and VSBY restrictions from showers both become
increasingly likely Friday evening into Friday night.

Sub-VFR conditions are likely as a cold front moves through the
forecast area Saturday morning through the afternoon. Shower and
thunderstorm chances decrease from northwest to southeast late
Saturday afternoon with southerly winds ahead of the front shifting
to northwesterly behind the frontal passage.

Gusty NW winds up to 30 kt are likely Sunday in the wake of a
frontal passage. Winds will be lighter Monday into Tuesday with VFR
conditions under high pressure.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to push eastward tonight. Meanwhile,
a warm front will lift through the region later tonight into
early Friday. Sub-SCA conditions are expected with light winds
out of the S to SSE tonight.

As the warm front pushes through Friday, showers and SCA wind
gusts are both possible, especially later in the day into the
evening hours. SCAs are in effect for all waters tomorrow
afternoon, and for all waters but the Upper Tidal Potomac
tomorrow night.

Showers and thunderstorms impact the waters on Saturday as a
cold front moves across the forecast area. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed on Saturday, and some low end
Gale gusts can`t be ruled out late Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night. Winds shift from southerly ahead of the front
to northwesterly behind the front Saturday evening.

Gusty northwest winds continue through Sunday with Small Craft
Advisory conditions likely. Winds will lessen by Monday morning as
high pressure moves overhead. Southerly winds may start increasing
by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the next low pressure system.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
     MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ530>534-536>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ535.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KLW/CJL
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/CJL/KJP
MARINE...ADS/KLW/CJL/KJP